“People say that truth lies between two opposite opinions.
It is not true! There lies a problem.”

Johann Wolfgang Goethe (1749-1832)
German poet.

At an H4 chart of the pair a version of the marking of completion of wave [iii] of the Terminal Impulse within wave [C] of the Flat Correction is presented as the second and last corrective figure of the more Elaborate Correction from 03.2002.

The analysis of the previous week's events revealed that expectations in respect of further dynamics of wave-[iv] of Terminal Impulse development were slightly exaggerated. Assumed development of corrective combination with the first Zigzag figure was not confirmed, but adequacy of supporting factors in respect of the second corrective figure structure, which is a part of the wave [iii] of Terminal Impulse does not give grounds for reconsideration of the marking proposed before. Strong arguments in favor of the confirmed failure of wave (C) was not just the attainment of level (О)-(В) for the period of time, shorter than wave (C) formation time, but also preservation of sufficient dynamics of rate fall in the course of 1,618 of the actual wave (C) amplitude, laid off from the point of its end.
The only alarming factor, which may be prerequisite for transfer of figure end to the point of m33 end with probable reconsideration of the presented marking, is revealed descending development chanality from the point of sudden topping of the market with a start at m34.

In respect of the structure of further development of the wave -[iv], we have the variant of Double or Triple Combination starting with the Flat Correction. In respect of the details of development of the first figure of the Flat Correction, the presented variant requires, of course, further confirmation, in particular, “outburst” from the assumed Triangle in wave (B) is desirable for the length not less than wave (c) and in time zone of convergence of trend lines (b)-(d) and (c)-(e).
In the last revue the guidelines in respect of wave [iv] end forecast were mentioned as probable correlation of 0.61 on time and amplitude characteristics to the waves -[ii] и [iv]. Taking into consideration the length of wave [ii], the variant of Combination of Flat figures, which has become history already, looks quite balanced. It should be noted as well, that figure Combination, which starts from the Flat correction, has a lot of variety, that’s why there can be some difficulties in respect of forecasting and channel building. One, the most likely, thing is that base line passing through the end points of b-waves, will always be more reliable and pure, than guidelines passing through the end points of a-waves.

Summarizing the mentioned observations, we have grounds for retention of long-term sales with targets 1.285/30, which will require more accurate specification later on.
For short-term planning, as before, we will apply the variant of trend strategy with discovering of descending trade channel, as most likely and appropriate for different kinds of Elaborate Corrections in the wave [iv] of Terminal Impulse.



With respect,
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At an H4 chart of the pair there is presented a marking of completion of wave [iii] and beginning of the wave [iv] of Terminal Impulse within wave [C] of the Flat Correction, as the second and last corrective figure of the more Elaborate Correction from 03.2002.

Beginning of wave [iv] demonstrated the sign of formation of Triple Combination, as theminimum, and shown quite strong bearish expansion can have continuation in formation of a rare figure of Triple Zigzag. The question is, in particular, in the structure of formation of the last figure of identified combination of standard corrections, and this “detail” may be the key for determination of the general structure of wave-[iv] of Terminal Impulse. The difference between Triple Zigzag and Triple Combination is that in the first case, the combination of triple Zigzags is less predictable in its consequences. In general case, in two variants of development, we have the probability of wave-(A) formation, as the biggest segment of the converging Triangle. In the case of Triple Zigzag there is an additional probability of formation of wave-(A) of Flat Correction. The logic of development of wave [iv] of Terminal suggests overlapping of second and fourth waves, which, by the way, we already have, but probability of real termination of wave [iv] higher than the beginning of wave [ii] is unlikely and may be a reason for reconsideration of existing marking. That’s why, in our case, from the position of analysis, performed by myself, the probability of development of Triple Zigzag as wave (A) of the Flat Correction is more logical.

With respect to correction combination, started in m52, we have the following quite interesting correlations, which, on one side, proove the actuality of the shown marking, but on the other side, some other variants, which I am not going to describe, somehow bring scepticism in respect of development predictability of wave [iv] of Terminal Impulse. So, now about good things and harmony, which we strive for:
- According to Neely’s statement, Triple Zigzags, the same as Triple Combinations, may secure ideal environment for constructing a channel. Ideal environment, as a result, was not found, but 4 necessary points for the version of descending correction channel were found, which, by implication, but prooves corrective nature of bearish development.
- A stronger argument for “controllability” of correction development is discovered “Waterfall Effect”. The point of termination of the second figure in respect to the first one, laid from the termination point of the first Zigzag 0.618. Then, wave (A) of the third figure analogically adds 0.382 to the amplitude of the first figure.
- Concernign the time parameters, the second figure has exactly the double length of the first one. The second bundle (x) correlates to the first one in time as 1.618. The logical continuation is formation of the third figure in time, as the longest to the first two, and, possibly, not shorter than the second figure. The variant of break out and termination of the third figure with time less then for the second one - is a variant of failure of wave (c) of the third Zigzag, and I do not consider it probable timewise.
- Existing approximate equality of waves (a), composing Triple Combination, and preservation of this equality for two first waves (c), completely excludes any variant of impulse development with beginning in m52.

Summarizing the abovementioned observations, on condition that the rate will not be higher than 1.2970 till renewal of last week’s Low, righteous will be openning of buy limit orders from 1.2860/80 with minimal mid term targets not lower than 1.3100.

For the variant of excess of 1.2970 we have time for termination of formation of Non-limiting Converging Triangle and strategic buys with minimal targets mentioned hereunder.

Regards,
www.forexltd.co.uk

At the H4 chart of the pair there is presented a marking of the wave [iv] of the Terminal Impulse within wave [C] of the Flat Correction, as the second and last corrective figure of the more Elaborate Correction from 03.2002.

Assumed rate growth higher 1,31 level was confirmed, but required reconsideration of marking of wave (A) structure without changing of main version of Triangle formation in wave [iv] of the Terminal Impulse.

The reasons for reconsideration of wave (A) marking are absence of confirming correction depth for assumed wave (b) of the Elongated Flat. Though planned termination for wave (b) had insignificantly exceeded pre-calculated range 1.2915/35, but other indices and requirements in respect of the allowed time for termination of wave (b) in the structure of Binding Converging Triangle also did not have a confirmation.

The pecularities of the renewed wave structure of wave (А) were the following :
-Marking of wave (А), as Triple Combination of the current version does not have an identified channel of development in respect of three figures, composint it. On one side, for Triple Combination characteristic development in the framework of the channel concerns 2 first figures, formally, for the third figure, it is enough to have at least one “false” break of base trend line ((b)-(b)) till the final termination of the figure, what we have here. On the other side, certain time “delay” of termination of the third figure beyound the boundaries of the channel version, preserves doubts as to correctness of marking of Triple Combination, being part of wave (A). As justification for this “delay” may be considered quite strong bullish mood of the market after two Zigzags for further neutralization and also “irregularity” of conditions of Triangle formation, as it is, in the structure of the wave [iv] of the Terminal Impulse.
-The last figure of Triple Combination, as Irregular Flat with a sign of failure in wave (c). The pecularity of this figure is that, on one side, wave (b) of the figure, having exceeded the initial level of wave (a), it has confirmed the cumulation of power of future bullish trend a sequence higher. On the other side, wave (c), though it hasn’t reached the initial level of wave (b), to be considered as a failure and confirm the logic of wave (b), but the depth of retractment of wave (b) for more than 90%, and break of channel support line of this figure brought an effect of certain neutralization in respect of the power of bullish trend. Further development may be considered as confirmation of this logical construction, but in a greater degree has a relation to what confirms the development of Triangle in wave [iv] of the Terminal impulse.
- Absence of time confirmation of the last figure of the Triple Combination, as earlier, has the only “justification” by Exception Rule in respect of the coditions of Triangle formation in the structure of wave [iv] of the Termianl Impulse.

The pecularity of further development of wave (B) is a structure of formation of the Elongated Flat. The Elongated Flat is a figure, which is possible only in Triangles and indirectly confirms the version of Triangle formation in the forth wave of the Terminal. Assets, which support this version are time similarity of waves (a) and (b), and failure in wave С (m82) before the development of elongated wave (c).


Summarizing the above-mentioned calculations and taking into consideration increased risk of conducting trading operations, while the Triangle is far from terminated, the wisest solution will be not to conduct and plan trading operations, until the confirmation of close Triangle termination or its factual termination will be received. In the existing situation it is practically impossible to forecast the structure of wave (B) because Elongated Flat may be both an integral Triangle side, that is of wave (B), or segment of Elaborated Correction. Moreover, irregularity of factors, which are included into the presented marking, also preserves the risk of next reconsideration of movement marks.
For aggressive strategy, taking into consideration that wave (B) practically “fulfilled” its minimum and that development of wave (с) (m53) or a part of it on the charts of smaller time periods have signs of formation of the Terminal Impulse, the variant of sales from levels 1.3160/1.3200 is possible with minimal targets 1.3020/40.



Regards,
Penguin
FOREX LTD